Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s 22 July high is the kind of single-day airport reading that resolves quickly once the daily observation is locked in, with the market tied to the highest temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport rather than a citywide average. The current crowd-implied 0% for the lowest range leaves the sharper question of whether the day lands in the upper-80s, low-90s, or something higher; the event page currently shows 94–95°F as the frontrunner at 100%, which is effectively a consensus signal that the day has already broken in that band.[1]

For context, this sort of weather market behaves less like a public-opinion poll and more like a single-judge contest: one station reading decides the outcome, so there is no jury/public split to soften the result. That makes it closer to markets settled by a single official scoreline than to formats such as Eurovision or the Oscars, where weighting systems can keep multiple outcomes alive longer. Here, precedent matters mainly in how quickly traders converge on the official airport source once forecast models and observed highs point to a narrow range.[1]

The main catalysts are the day’s temperature trend, the timing of the final airport observation, and whether any late-afternoon surge at Sea-Tac pushes the reading into a different settlement bucket. For traders, the key dependency is the Wunderground daily-history entry for KSEA, since that site is the stated resolution source and the market turns on the highest recorded value for the full day, not a forecast high or a city forecast elsewhere.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.