Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s summer heat is dictated by the Pacific’s cool marine layer, which typically caps July highs well below 80°F at the city’s international airport station. Historical data shows the area rarely breaches 85°F, with most July days hovering between 65°F and 75°F due to persistent coastal fog. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome above 79°F aligns with this entrenched climatic pattern, where extreme heat events are statistical outliers rather than seasonal norms.

Comparable weather markets on Polymarket confirm this consensus, with the 78–79°F range commanding a 93% probability and 80–81°F trailing at just 6% [1]. This distribution mirrors past settlement outcomes for San Francisco July temperatures, where the marine layer’s strength has consistently prevented sustained heatwaves. The near-zero probability for higher ranges reflects not speculation but a direct read on decades of meteorological records from the KSFO station, which show July 14 highs rarely exceeding 79°F.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s weekly marine layer forecasts and any sudden shifts in high-pressure systems over the Pacific, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature deviations. A breakdown in the fog layer—often triggered by inland heat domes moving west—could briefly elevate temperatures, though such events remain rare in mid-July. No recent announcements suggest an anomalous heat pattern is forming, reinforcing the market’s tight confidence in the 78–79°F outcome.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.