Highest temperature in Paris on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, which serves as the primary meteorological reference for the Île-de-France region. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or a data-loading issue rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

Historical July temperatures at Le Bourget provide the essential baseline. Over the past two decades, late July highs in Paris have typically ranged between 22°C and 28°C, with occasional spikes above 30°C during heat waves. The summer of 2022 saw temperatures exceed 35°C across France, whilst the notably cooler July 2021 peaked around 26°C at the station. These precedents establish that all reasonable temperature brackets—from sub-20°C outcomes through to 35°C-plus scenarios—carry genuine historical plausibility, making the current flat probability distribution less informative than the underlying climate data.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from mid-July 2026 onwards, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Broader atmospheric patterns—including the North Atlantic Oscillation and any established heat dome positioning over continental Europe—will determine whether late July brings typical summer conditions or anomalous extremes. The settlement window closes at midday on 27 July, allowing only morning forecasts to inform final trading positions before resolution against Wunderground's recorded data.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.