Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris will experience weather on 24 July 2026, and the highest temperature recorded at Le Bourget Airport that day will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs daily highs across multiple time zones and measurement stations. Le Bourget, located north-east of central Paris, serves as the official reference point for the city's aviation meteorology and is the standard source for French weather records in prediction markets.

July temperatures in the Paris region typically peak between 24 and 28 degrees Celsius, though heat waves can push readings above 30 degrees. Historical precedent matters here: the summer of 2022 saw France experience extreme heat with several days exceeding 35 degrees, whilst the 2021 season remained more moderate. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific range thresholds offered or expect the market to resolve outside all listed brackets—a pattern seen when range definitions fail to capture realistic outcomes or when settlement ambiguity deters participation.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-July 2026 onwards, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which typically issue reliable ten-day outlooks five to seven days before the event. Heatwave warnings from French authorities would signal upward pressure on temperature expectations. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 24 July, meaning final readings must be confirmed by Wunderground before that deadline; any data delays or station maintenance could affect resolution timing.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.