Highest temperature in Paris on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris’s August temperature markets usually resolve around the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, but there is a meaningful tail into the high 20s when a warm spell arrives. Long-run Paris August data show average highs near 25.9°C, with published daily records for 1 August ranging up to 35.5°C in 2013, while broader Paris August records have reached about 39°C to 40°C in recent decades.[1][3][5] That makes a 0% crowd price for **YES** look disconnected from the city’s historical distribution rather than from any single extreme forecast.

The clearest frame here is not a jury/public split in the literal sense, but the way prediction markets often move when traders collectively overweight the most common outcome and underprice the hot-tail risk. As with voting systems that can reward a strong plurality even when the full field is fragmented, temperature range markets can stay anchored to one bracket until late weather models force a re-price. Current Polymarket pricing already shows the market clustering around **28°C** and **29°C**, with 28°C the front-runner at 70%, which is consistent with a warm but not exceptional Paris summer day.[7]

For catalysts, the key inputs are short-range forecasts and any late-summer European heat build-up, especially if continental high pressure strengthens over northern France. Forecast services are already pointing to August highs in the low 20s to low 30s Celsius for Paris, while recent reporting has highlighted episodes of intensified heat across France, including Paris temperatures around 33°C during a warm spell.[2][8][14] Traders should watch the run-in to 1 August itself, because the market settles on the day’s *highest* reading at Paris–Le Bourget Airport, so even modest forecast nudges can shift the likely range if overnight model updates lift the daytime ceiling.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.