Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the daily high temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of this prediction market. Historical precedents for weather-based markets show that current crowd-implied probabilities of 0% often reflect extreme caution rather than absolute certainty, much like how Eurovision splits voting 50/50 between jury and public televote to balance expert and popular sentiment. In similar climate events, such as the Robinhood market for New York’s daily high on 2 June 2026, initial odds shifted dramatically once actual data emerged, proving that early zero probabilities can be misleading when weather patterns remain volatile.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s climatological report for LaGuardia, which details temperature normals and record highs for the period, as well as AccuWeather’s June 2026 forecast indicating daily highs ranging from 77°F to 92°F. A key catalyst is the upcoming release of Wunderground’s official daily history for 26 June, which will serve as the definitive resolution source; any deviation from the forecasted range could trigger rapid odds adjustments. Recent precedent from the Gemini market on 12 June 2026, where odds settled at 89°F or below, suggests that temperatures in late June often hover near the mid-80s, making a 0% probability for higher ranges potentially premature.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.