Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify which temperature band will contain the peak heat recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 27 July 2026. Settlement depends on historical weather data from Weather Underground, with the specific station serving as the authoritative measurement point. The resolution window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's observations.

July temperatures at LaGuardia typically peak in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. The 30-year normal high for late July sits around 82°F, with extreme records reaching 96°F. The current zero probability assigned to this market suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be specified or treating the event as certain to fall within expected seasonal bounds rather than exceptional territory. Historical precedent from comparable weather markets shows that extreme-heat scenarios—those requiring temperatures 10+ degrees above seasonal norms—rarely attract significant trading volume unless specific meteorological forecasts signal an unusual pattern weeks in advance.

Traders monitoring this market should track the National Weather Service's extended outlooks beginning in early July 2026, particularly any heat advisories or excessive heat warnings issued for the New York metropolitan area. Atlantic hurricane season activity and upper-atmosphere ridge positioning typically influence late-July conditions across the Northeast. The absence of current probability mass suggests the market may activate only once definitive range brackets appear and seasonal forecasts become more granular, roughly 10–14 days before the settlement date.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.