Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in Fahrenheit and sourced from Weather Underground's historical database. New York's summer heat typically peaks in late July, with average highs around 84°F, though the city regularly experiences days exceeding 90°F during heat waves. The settlement mechanism relies on a single, verifiable data point—the maximum temperature logged at the airport station on that specific date—making this a straightforward factual resolution rather than a subjective judgment call.

Historical precedent for New York weather markets shows that July temperatures cluster predictably. Over the past decade, mid-to-late July highs at LaGuardia have ranged from 78°F to 95°F, with the majority falling between 82°F and 88°F. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either waiting for additional information or treating this as a placeholder market ahead of seasonal forecasting. As summer 2026 approaches, meteorological forecasts from the National Weather Service and longer-range climate models will sharpen predictions; traders should monitor whether El Niño or La Niña conditions develop, as these influence Atlantic coastal temperatures months in advance.

The settlement window closes at midday on 19 July, allowing traders to adjust positions based on morning forecasts and real-time conditions. Urban heat island effects specific to LaGuardia's location—surrounded by tarmac and infrastructure—typically push recorded temperatures 2–4°F higher than surrounding areas, a factor historical traders have consistently underweighted.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.