Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

An intense heatwave currently gripping the East Coast is set to weaken by 17 July, with forecasts indicating New York City temperatures will drop back into the 80s as a cold front moves in from the west. This meteorological shift directly informs the market’s current 0% probability for extreme highs, as the high-pressure system responsible for mid-90s readings on 15 and 16 July is forecast to dissipate before the settlement window closes.

Historical precedent for July heat in New York suggests that while 100-degree days are rare, occurring only once in the last 12 years, the 80s remain the statistically dominant range for mid-month highs once cooling fronts arrive. The market’s frontrunner outcome of 86–87°F at 35% aligns with this cooling trend, while the next closest outcome of 88–89°F holds 30%, reflecting the crowd’s confidence that the peak heat has already passed rather than lingering into the settlement date.

Traders should monitor the precise timing of the cold front’s arrival and any deviations in the high-pressure system’s weakening schedule, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature variance. Recent weather modelling confirms that clouds and cooler air will accompany the front, potentially bringing showers or thunderstorms that further suppress peak temperatures below the 90-degree threshold seen earlier in the week.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.