Highest temperature in NYC on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. New York's August temperatures typically peak between 80 and 90 degrees Fahrenheit, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-90s. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either confident no extreme heat will occur that day, or the market structure itself—requiring precise range selection—has created barriers to meaningful participation.

Historical August weather data for New York shows considerable variability year to year. The city has recorded August highs exceeding 95 degrees in roughly one-third of years since 2000, whilst temperatures in the 75–85 degree range occur with similar frequency. The resolution methodology here mirrors established weather-market practices: using a single airport's official station data eliminates ambiguity from multiple measurement points across the metropolitan area, though it does exclude readings from Central Park or other locations that sometimes report differently.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models released by NOAA in July 2026, which typically indicate whether the Atlantic basin is trending toward cooler or warmer-than-normal conditions for early autumn. Real-time weather patterns in early August will provide clearer signals about high-pressure systems or tropical activity that could influence the 19th. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, allowing only morning forecast updates to influence final trading positions.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.