Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Kuala Lumpur's equatorial climate produces consistent daily temperature patterns throughout the year, with July falling within the southwest monsoon season. The highest daily temperature at Kuala Lumpur International Airport typically ranges between 32–34°C, though occasional peaks above 35°C occur during drier spells. Historical July records show the airport station rarely exceeds 36°C on any single day, with most extremes clustered in the 33–35°C band. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the precise range options available or expect the market to resolve toward the lower end of plausible outcomes.

Wunderground's historical archive provides granular hourly data for the airport station, making this market dependent on accurate data retrieval rather than subjective interpretation. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 19 July 2026, which falls before the typical afternoon peak temperature in Kuala Lumpur. This timing matters: if the market's range brackets are structured to capture temperatures above 35°C as a distinct outcome, traders must account for whether the highest reading will occur before or after the settlement deadline. Recent monsoon patterns across Southeast Asia have shown variable intensity, though long-term July averages remain stable within the 32–34°C range observed over the past decade.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.