Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 31 July will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official **Absolute Daily Max**, with the final figure published in the Daily Extract after the day closes. The important real-world reference is the city’s July heat pattern rather than any single intraday reading: the Observatory says July has already produced record-breaking heat in recent years, including an average monthly temperature of 30.3°C in one of the hottest Julys on record, and temperatures have rebounded sharply after brief rain interruptions.[1][8]

For reading this market, comparable weather outcomes behave more like a public forecast than a jury vote: the crowd can overreact to a single hot afternoon, but the official settlement depends on one clean number from the observatory. Hong Kong’s July record table shows how top-end outcomes cluster in the mid-30s, with the highest monthly maximum temperature on record at 35.7°C and several other 35°C-plus July readings, so a 0% YES price would only be justified if traders believe today’s peak will miss the relevant threshold by a wide margin.[2] Recent precedents also show that the Observatory can record very high daily maxima late in the month, including 36.1°C on 27 July 2023.[8]

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s daytime updates, any late-afternoon surge in urban temperatures, and the timing of the official daily extract, which is the only source that matters for settlement.[7][12] At 2 p.m. on 31 July, the Observatory reported 31°C at the station, with several districts already at 31–33°C, so the key question is whether late sunshine and weak wind allow a further rise before the day’s maximum is locked in.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.