Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong faces a day of cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms on 21 July 2026, a weather pattern that suppresses peak temperatures well below the thresholds required for the highest-temperature outcomes in this market. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal forecast for July to September 2026 indicates temperatures will be normal to above-normal overall, yet the immediate forecast for this specific date highlights unsettled conditions rather than the very hot weather seen mid-week [2][3]. This atmospheric context explains the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any high-temperature range, as rain and cloud cover typically cap daily maximums.

Historical precedent from Hong Kong’s summer climate shows that days with thunderstorms and low-pressure systems rarely produce record-breaking highs, with absolute daily maxima on such dates often staying under 32°C. Comparable cases from recent years demonstrate that when unsettled weather dominates a July day, the probability of exceeding 34°C drops sharply, aligning with the market’s current pricing. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract” for the finalized “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” once published, as this is the sole resolution source [1]. The key catalyst is the official data release, which will confirm whether the unsettled forecast held or if an unexpected heat spike occurred despite the clouds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.