Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is currently experiencing mid-July heat, with yesterday’s peak reaching 37.0°C (92.6°F) and today’s forecast suggesting highs near 31°C to 33°C. The market asks for the highest temperature recorded on 12 July 2026, but the crowd-implied probability of any specific range resolving as “YES” sits at 0%, likely because the official daily maximum has not yet been finalized by the Hong Kong Observatory.

Historical July data shows Hong Kong regularly hits 34°C–35°C, with July 2024 peaking at 34.8°C on 7 July [1]. The average July high is 29°C (84°F), though extreme days often exceed 33°C [3][5]. Given that 11 July 2026 already reached 37.0°C, a 0% probability across all ranges is anomalous unless the market is mis-specified or awaiting data publication, as settlement depends entirely on the Observatory’s “Daily Extract” [6].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s climatological page for the finalized “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” for 12 July 2026, which will determine resolution [6]. No external announcements are expected; the sole catalyst is the official data release, typically published within 24–48 hours after the date. Until the “Daily Extract” is available, the market cannot resolve, making the 0% probability a reflection of unresolved data rather than a temperature forecast [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.