Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, measured to one decimal place and published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract once data is finalised.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year, with historical daily maxima clustering between 31–34°C during the height of summer. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact range boundaries or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine forecast. Comparable weather markets on established platforms show that when historical data is tightly distributed and publicly available, crowd estimates tend to compress toward the modal range; Hong Kong's August pattern is well-documented, making extreme outliers unlikely unless a significant weather system disrupts the seasonal norm. The Observatory's published climate data spans decades, providing a robust baseline against which August 2026 can be assessed.

The key dependency is the East Asian monsoon pattern and any tropical cyclone activity in the weeks preceding 20 August. The Hong Kong Meteorological Society and regional weather services issue monthly forecasts in July that often signal whether conditions will favour above or below-average temperatures. Traders should monitor the Observatory's monthly climate summaries and any typhoon warnings issued in early August, as these directly influence daily maxima. Resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its Daily Extract for that date, typically within days of the observation period closing.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.