Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The outcome is the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **absolute daily maximum temperature** for Hong Kong on 2 August, and the market settles on the one-decimal Celsius reading once the Daily Extract is published. Because the resolution source is the Observatory’s official record, the key practical question is not what the public forecast said during the day, but which temperature band the final reading lands in after the day’s weather is fully logged.[1][3][4]

Recent precedent points to a volatile late-summer baseline rather than a fixed number. August in Hong Kong typically runs hot and humid, with many forecasts clustering around the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, yet heavy rain, thunderstorms and cloud cover can suppress the peak substantially.[2][5][8] The market’s current 0% implied chance of **YES** therefore reflects a starting assumption of a low-reading day, but comparable Hong Kong heat events this year have shown that the Observatory can still post maxima well above 34°C when conditions turn sharply clearer and drier.[7][9][11]

For traders, the main catalysts are the Observatory’s day-of forecasts, rainfall/thunderstorm warnings, and any shift in synoptic patterns that changes whether afternoon heating breaks through the low 30s or stalls earlier. The most relevant live inputs are the official Hong Kong Observatory forecast pages and hourly readings, because the final maximum is driven by how much sunshine survives the showers rather than by the calendar alone.[3][4][20] The settlement source also notes that later revisions will not count, so the first published Daily Extract for the date is the decisive reference point.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.