Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that official reading, measured to one decimal place and sourced from the Observatory's published Daily Extract data. Settlement occurs after the Observatory finalises and publishes the figure, which typically happens within days of the observation date.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year, with historical daily maxima clustering between 31–34°C during the height of summer. The Observatory's records show that extreme outliers—readings above 35°C or below 30°C on mid-August dates—occur rarely enough that markets pricing them at 0% reflect genuine scarcity rather than forecasting error. The current crowd probability suggests traders expect the 17th to fall within the modal range, with no meaningful tail-risk allocation to unusually hot or cool outcomes. Comparable weather markets on established platforms typically show similar clustering around historical norms when settlement windows are distant and atmospheric conditions remain unpredictable.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August, as storm systems can suppress temperatures significantly or, conversely, drive heat and humidity to extreme levels in their periphery. The Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlooks, published quarterly, will offer the most reliable guidance on whether August 2026 is tracking toward above-average or below-average heat. Any significant weather pattern shifts reported in late July would warrant reassessment of the probability distribution.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.