Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

On 27 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, where historical data shows June is exceptionally hot and humid with a record high of 36.6°C[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific range suggests traders are either misreading the subtropical high-pressure influence or betting on an unprecedented cooling event, despite June being one of the wettest months with occasional heavy storms and potential typhoons[1].

Historical precedents in similar weather markets, such as Eurovision’s 50/50 jury and televote split, reveal that public sentiment often diverges from expert data when extreme conditions are involved[1]. In Guangzhou, the average June temperature ranges between 25°C and 32°C, with thunderstorms and heavy rain common on dates like 27 June, which typically sees a high of 31°C[3]. This pattern indicates that a 0% probability for any range is statistically anomalous, as the region’s climate consistently produces high temperatures influenced by subtropical highs[1].

Traders should monitor the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau’s daily forecasts for typhoon warnings or sudden rain squalls, which could drastically lower peak temperatures[1]. Recent news from People’s Daily confirms that May 2026 was the hottest in history for Guangzhou, with temperatures reaching 36.3°C, suggesting a continuation of extreme heat into June[4]. Dependencies include the timing of the subtropical high-pressure system and any incoming typhoons, which are frequent in this month and could alter the settlement outcome significantly[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.