Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data published by Weather Underground, which aggregates readings across all hours of that calendar day. Guangzhou's subtropical climate typically produces peak summer temperatures between 32–36°C during late July, though extreme heat events can push readings higher. The market's current 0% probability on the YES option suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will resolve or are awaiting clarity on the specific ranges offered.

Historical precedent from similar weather markets shows that July temperatures in Guangzhou have exhibited modest year-on-year variation. The city's 30-year average high for mid-to-late July sits around 33–34°C, with recorded extremes reaching 39°C during particularly intense heat waves. Markets tracking Guangzhou's summer temperatures have typically seen probability distributions cluster around the 33–35°C bands, with tail outcomes (sub-32°C or above-37°C) receiving minimal backing unless seasonal forecasts signal anomalous patterns.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks released in early July 2026, which often signal whether the summer monsoon will intensify or weaken across southern regions. Real-time atmospheric pressure systems and tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during late July can materially shift daily maxima. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 21 July, leaving a narrow window for final trades once morning temperatures are recorded but before afternoon peaks are finalised.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.