Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 21 August 2026, with the market tracking whether the daily maximum temperature at Baiyun International Airport Station will fall within a specified range. The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that has mattered in previous weather markets where automated summaries occasionally diverge from granular station data by 0.5–1.0 degrees Celsius.

August represents Guangzhou's hottest month, with historical daily maxima typically between 32–35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or scepticism about the market's specificity. Comparable weather markets on this platform have shown that crowd confidence in temperature ranges tightens substantially once July data arrives, as seasonal patterns become clearer and atmospheric models improve. Markets resolving on specific station data have occasionally surprised when localised factors—airport construction, temporary sensor recalibration, or unusual weather systems—shift readings outside expected bands.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late July and early August, which typically project Guangzhou's seasonal outlook with reasonable accuracy. The China Daily and state weather services publish monthly climate summaries that can signal whether 2026 is tracking toward above or below-average heat. Any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during mid-August could suppress temperatures, though such systems rarely reach Guangzhou directly. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 21 August, allowing only morning observations to count, which may exclude the day's actual peak if afternoon heating extends beyond the cutoff.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.