Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing will experience peak summer heat on 11 August 2026, with the market seeking to identify which temperature bracket will contain the highest reading recorded at Jiangbei International Airport Station that day. The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the summary figures, a distinction that matters when automated stations log readings at irregular intervals or when peak temperatures occur outside standard reporting windows.

August in Chongqing typically sees daily highs between 33°C and 38°C, though the city's position in the Sichuan Basin and its dense urban fabric create microclimatic conditions that occasionally push readings higher. Historical data from the past decade shows extreme temperatures above 40°C occur roughly once every two to three years during the peak summer months. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either sceptical of an exceptionally high reading or uncertain about the specific threshold ranges offered in this market's resolution brackets.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late July and early August, which typically provide ten-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for regional temperature extremes. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 11 August, meaning the market resolves based on temperatures recorded up to that point; any peak occurring in the afternoon after settlement will not factor into resolution. Local weather patterns, including the East Asian summer monsoon's intensity and any tropical systems affecting the region, will be the primary drivers of whether readings exceed historical norms for that specific date.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.