Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the **highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 4 August**, with the market settling to whichever Celsius range contains that day’s peak reading on the resolution source. That makes the key question less about the morning forecast and more about whether Chengdu gets one of its short-lived afternoon warm-ups before cloud, rain, or convection caps the high.

The public signal is easy to read in historical context: Chengdu in August is typically hot, humid, and rain-prone, with average highs around 30-32°C and frequent showers, but occasional bursts into the mid-30s do occur.[1][5][11][17] Recent market framing also points to a tight cluster around the low-to-mid 30s, with one preview noting model guidance near 33°C and the leading market outcomes concentrated at 34°C and 35°C rather than anything extreme.[14] In that sense, a 0% YES price looks more like a stale or misaligned crowd view than a reflection of the city’s normal August envelope.

Traders should watch the daytime evolution rather than any single headline forecast: if morning cloud breaks and afternoon sunshine holds, Chengdu can briefly print a higher maximum even in a rainy month.[5][12] The main dependencies are local cloud cover, precipitation timing, and whether the airport station records its peak before showers move in; the market’s own rules also matter, because revisions within the settlement window count until the first datapoint for the following day is published.[14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.