Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is in a seasonally hot, humid part of the year, so the market is really asking whether 1 August 2026 produces an upper-end daily high rather than an ordinary summer reading. Historical August norms cluster around the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, with several sources putting the month’s average maximum near 30°C to 31°C and typical early-August highs around 33°C to 34°C, while occasional spikes can reach the mid-to-high 30s Celsius.[2][3][16]

That framing helps explain why the current 0% crowd-implied probability looks extreme: the public appears to be pricing almost no chance of a sufficiently hot reading at the airport, even though long-run climate data suggest August is Chengdu’s hottest month and record highs have reached at least 39°C in the city’s broader weather history.[5][6] In prediction-market terms, this is closer to a jury-versus-public split than a consensus forecast: the public may be overweighting rain and cloud cover, while the historical baseline says the tail risk is real enough to matter.

What traders should watch is the day’s actual temperature path at the airport station, not just city-wide forecasts, because the market resolves on the highest reading recorded there before the settlement window closes.[market description] Late-morning heating, showers that cap the afternoon maximum, or a heat burst after temporary clearing can all move the final outcome. Chengdu’s August weather is often wet, with sizeable rainfall and high humidity, so small shifts in cloud cover and precipitation timing can swing the day’s peak temperature materially.[2][10][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.