Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s late-July heat can still deliver a sharp afternoon spike, but this market is settled on the **single highest reading** at Beijing Capital International Airport Station on 31 July, so the final number is usually driven by one brief warm burst rather than the day’s average. July is Beijing’s warmest month on climatology, with average highs around 31.8°C, and the city’s July records show that the upper tail is wide enough to matter for a temperature band market.[1][3]

That makes the crowd’s 0% YES pricing notable rather than impossible: the comparable history points to a summer distribution where highs in the mid-30s are common, and Beijing’s all-time July records have reached 41.9°C.[3][8] Public temperature markets often underprice “one-day extreme” outcomes when the setting uses a specific station and a specific daily maximum, because the question is not whether the month is hot, but whether that exact airport observation lands inside the chosen range. The relevant reading can therefore move on local cloud cover, convection, and timing of peak heat, much like other markets that hinge on a small number of decisive votes rather than a season-long average.

For traders, the main catalysts are the airport observation itself and any late-day shift in the synoptic setup: strong sunshine, weak winds, and a dry boundary layer would all favour a higher maximum, while showers or thicker cloud would cap it. With settlement tied to Wunderground’s history page for Beijing Capital International Airport Station, the key watchpoints are the afternoon temperature trend, any local thunderstorm risk, and whether nearby forecast providers converge on a high-30s outcome rather than the low-30s baseline.[2][11][14][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.