Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would cease to be President only if he resigns voluntarily, is removed via impeachment and Senate conviction, or dies before 31 July 2026. The market’s 1% YES probability reflects the extreme constitutional and political hurdles required for such an outcome, given that no sitting president has ever been removed after impeachment in U.S. history. Historically, Andrew Johnson (1868), Bill Clinton (1998), and Trump himself (2019, 2021) were all impeached by the House but acquitted by the Senate, with Trump’s second trial failing by just 5 votes short of the two-thirds threshold needed for removal[2][3]. Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 before impeachment, but that was a voluntary exit amid mounting pressure, not a forced removal[9]. Even Trump’s 2024 felony conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records did not trigger automatic removal, as the Constitution requires impeachment plus Senate conviction for that[1].

Traders should monitor three key catalysts: any formal announcement of resignation, the progress of new impeachment inquiries in the House, and the timing of Trump’s November 2024 sentencing on his business records conviction, which could influence political pressure[1]. While the 25th Amendment allows temporary removal for incapacity, it does not qualify for this market unless it becomes permanent[7]. Recent reports indicate Trump and allies are exploring legal strategies to expunge his prior impeachments from official records, suggesting active efforts to shield his presidency from future removal attempts[5]. The Supreme Court’s 2024 ruling granting former presidents presumptive immunity for official acts further complicates any criminal path to removal[6]. With no credible public or congressional momentum for removal as of early July 2026, the 1% probability aligns with historical precedent and current legal realities.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Trump out as President by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.