Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are barely trickling through the Strait of Hormuz as the US-Iran deadlock deepens, with commercial traffic remaining at a near-standstill despite an April ceasefire. Only six vessels navigated the waterway in a single 24-hour window in late April, a precipitous drop from the typical 120 passages, while some tankers continue transiting without AIS to avoid detection amid missile threats and potential mines [2][1].

Historical precedents for such chokepoints show that probability markets often misread the speed of recovery; just as Eurovision splits voting between jury and public to balance bias, this market’s 56% YES implies a fragile optimism that ignores the entrenched routing uncertainty and the fact that the strait briefly reopened on 21 April before closing again the next day [2][4]. The cultural narrative of a quick fix clashes with the reality that 21% of global oil and 25% of LNG trade remain at risk, with daily economic costs exceeding $4 billion as ships reroute via the Cape of Good Hope [4].

Traders must watch the IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average for any date before July 31, specifically monitoring the June 18 surge where 25 commercial vessels crossed the newly reopened strait, the highest recent figure [8]. Key dependencies include the US navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center assessments and any shift in Iran’s toll enforcement or mine-laying claims, as the ongoing impasse regarding terms to re-open the waterway continues to constrain transits [2]. A sustained return to 60 daily calls remains unlikely unless the US-Iran ceasefire terms are fully implemented and routing uncertainty dissolves [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.