Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Paper Rex (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Paper Rex (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Paper Rex (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Paper Rex (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Paper Rex (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Paper Rex (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-7.5) vs Paper Rex (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 48% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Paper Rex (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Paper Rex (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Paper Rex (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Paper Rex (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-7.5) vs Paper Rex (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-6.5) vs NRG (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-7.5) vs NRG (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to valorant: paper rex vs nrg (bo3) - esports world cup group b. This market refers to the Valorant match between Paper Rex and NRG in the Esports World Cup Group B, initially scheduled for July 2 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "Paper Rex" if Paper Rex …
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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