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Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha

Snapshot for "Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha": award probabilities, show odds, every CTA to Oscar Predictions 2026.

Map 1 Winner 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 100% Volume: $580K Liquidity: $495K Closes: 7 Aug 2026
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Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5100%
Match Winner90%
Map 2 Winner81%
Map Handicap: EG (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)81%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5)50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-5.5) vs FURIA Esports (+5.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-4.5) vs FURIA Esports (+4.5)50%
O/U 2.5 Games20%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5)1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5)1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-4.5) vs FURIA Esports (+4.5)1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-5.5) vs FURIA Esports (+5.5)1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-6.5) vs FURIA Esports (+6.5)1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-3.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+3.5)1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.51%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.51%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.51%
Map Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5)0%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: evil geniuses vs furia esports (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 group alpha. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Evil Geniuses and FURIA Esports in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for August 6 at 5:00PM ET. This marke…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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