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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

"Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs" — live odds for awards shows and entertainment markets, plus platform comparison.

Map 1 Winner 100% Map 2 Winner 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 100% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) 100% Volume: $851K Liquidity: $967K Closes: 12 Jul 2026
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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Map 2 Winner100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs NRG (+6.5)100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5)100%
O/U 3.5 Games76%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)74%
Match Winner69%
O/U 4.5 Games52%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 4 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 5 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 4 Winner48%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)45%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.526%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)26%
Map Handicap: 100T (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)25%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.51%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs NRG (+6.5)1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.51%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-7.5) vs NRG (+7.5)1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-8.5) vs NRG (+8.5)1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.51%
Map 3 Winner0%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)0%
Map Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5)0%

Market context

The Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between 100 Thieves and NRG in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 12 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thie…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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