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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A

Snapshot for "Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A": award probabilities, show odds, every CTA to Oscar Predictions 2026.

Map 1 Winner 84% Match Winner 84% Map 2 Winner 73% Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) 60% Volume: $538K Liquidity: $86K Closes: 30 Sept 2026
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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 84% 16% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 84% 16% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner84%
Match Winner84%
Map 2 Winner73%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)60%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5)50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs FUT Esports (+4.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs FUT Esports (+5.5)50%
O/U 2.5 Games36%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 84% probability to valorant: 100 thieves vs fut esports (bo3) - vct champions group a. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between 100 Thieves and FUT Esports in the VCT Champions Group A, initially scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve t…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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