Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 90% |
| O/U 18.5 | 81% |
| O/U 22.5 | 62% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| O/U 24.5 | 54% |
| Seahawks O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 50% |
| Seahawks Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks vs. Chiefs: Total Defensive/Special Teams TDs O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks vs. Chiefs | 45% |
| Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 30.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| O/U 34.5 | 19% |
| O/U 33.5 | 18% |
| O/U 35.5 | 14% |
| O/U 36.5 | 13% |
| O/U 38.5 | 10% |
| 1H Moneyline | 10% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 10% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 8.5 | 10% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 10% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 6.5 | 10% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 8.5 | 10% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 10.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| O/U 42.5 | 5% |
| O/U 48.5 | 4% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 3% |
| O/U 54.5 | 2% |
Market context
The Seahawks vs. Chiefs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for August 28 at 8:00PM ET: If Seahawks wins, the market will resolve to "Seahawks". If Chiefs wins, the market will resolve to "Chiefs". If the game is postponed, …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $135K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Seahawks vs. Chiefs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
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