Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 88% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 81% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 70% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 69% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 65% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 65% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 61% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 61% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 57% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 56% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 56% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 54% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Dallas Goedert: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Dallas Goedert: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Hollywood Brown: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Roschon Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Sam Roush: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Saquon Barkley: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zavion Thomas: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 50% |
| Dallas Goedert: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 50% |
| Hollywood Brown: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 50% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Caleb Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Caleb Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| Dallas Goedert: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| Hollywood Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 48% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 48% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| DeVonta Smith: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 44% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Completions O/U 15.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 43% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 43% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 41% |
| D'Andre Swift: Anytime Touchdown | 41% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 41% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 41% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 40% |
| Cole Kmet: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 39% |
| Jalen Hurts: Anytime Touchdown | 39% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 37% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Johnny Mundt: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 34% |
| DeVonta Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 33% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 33% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 32% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 32% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 32% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 32% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 31% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 28% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 28% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 28% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 28% |
| Kyle Monangai: Anytime Touchdown | 28% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Jalen Hurts: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 28% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Colston Loveland: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Luther Burden III: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Rome Odunze: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Britain Covey: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Colston Loveland: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 27% |
| D'Andre Swift: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 27% |
| Darius Cooper: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| E.J. Jenkins: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Johnny Mundt: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Makai Lemon: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Sam Roush: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 27% |
| Saquon Barkley: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Tank Bigsby: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Will Shipley: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Zavion Thomas: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| Elijah Moore: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Caleb Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 26% |
| Dallas Goedert: Anytime Touchdown | 26% |
| Cole Kmet: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| DeVonta Smith: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 26% |
| Jahdae Walker: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Kalif Raymond: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Kyle Monangai: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Luther Burden III: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Rome Odunze: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Roschon Johnson: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 26% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 26% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 26% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 26% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 26% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 25% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 25% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 24% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 24% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 24% |
| Tank Bigsby: 2+ Touchdowns | 24% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 24% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 24% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 44.5 | 24% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 44.5 | 24% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 24% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 24% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 23% |
| Cole Kmet: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 22% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 22% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 21% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 21% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 21% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 20% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 20% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 20% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 20% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 20% |
| Johnny Mundt: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 19% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Colston Loveland: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| Luther Burden III: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 19% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 18% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 18% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 18% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 17% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 15% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 15% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 15% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 15% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 14% |
| Rome Odunze: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 14% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 13% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 13% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 13% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 13% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 13% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 12% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 12% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Cole Kmet: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 11% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 10% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Makai Lemon: Anytime Touchdown | 10% |
| Saquon Barkley: 2+ Touchdowns | 10% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 10% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 10% |
| Johnny Mundt: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 9% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 9% |
| D'Andre Swift: 2+ Touchdowns | 8% |
| Kalif Raymond: Anytime Touchdown | 8% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 8% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 7% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 7% |
| Cole Kmet: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Johnny Mundt: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Tank Bigsby: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Will Shipley: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 7% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 7% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 7% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 7% |
| Darius Cooper: Anytime Touchdown | 6% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 6% |
| Cole Kmet: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Hurts: 2+ Touchdowns | 5% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 5% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 5% |
| Johnny Mundt: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 4% |
| DeVonta Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 3% |
| Jahdae Walker: Anytime Touchdown | 3% |
| Kyle Monangai: 2+ Touchdowns | 3% |
| Elijah Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 3% |
| Britain Covey: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| E.J. Jenkins: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Makai Lemon: 2+ Touchdowns | 2% |
| Roschon Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Sam Roush: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Zavion Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Cole Kmet: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Colston Loveland: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Kalif Raymond: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Luther Burden III: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Rome Odunze: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Will Shipley: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Britain Covey: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Darius Cooper: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| E.J. Jenkins: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Jahdae Walker: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Johnny Mundt: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Elijah Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
Market context
The Eagles vs. Bears - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 88% YES. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Eagles and Bears, scheduled for September 28 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Eagles vs. Bears - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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