Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| O/U 19.5 | 94% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 90% |
| 1H Moneyline | 90% |
| Giants 1H O/U 8.5 | 90% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 90% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 90% |
| O/U 25.5 | 79% |
| Giants vs. Jets | 71% |
| O/U 27.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| Spread -3.5 | 58% |
| O/U 29.5 | 54% |
| O/U 33.5 | 53% |
| Jets O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jets O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Giants O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Giants by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jets by 21+ | 50% |
| Giants Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jets Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Giants vs. Jets: Total Defensive/Special Teams TDs O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Giants vs. Jets: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| O/U 31.5 | 47% |
| Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| O/U 35.5 | 29% |
| O/U 37.5 | 22% |
| O/U 36.5 | 22% |
| O/U 39.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Jets 1H O/U 6.5 | 10% |
| Jets 1H O/U 8.5 | 10% |
| Jets 1H O/U 10.5 | 10% |
| Giants 1H O/U 10.5 | 10% |
| Giants 1H O/U 12.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| O/U 43.5 | 8% |
| O/U 49.5 | 6% |
| O/U 55.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Giants vs. Jets. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for August 28 at 7:30PM ET: If Giants wins, the market will resolve to "Giants". If Jets wins, the market will resolve to "Jets". If the game is postponed, this mar…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $239K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Giants vs. Jets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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