Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Chris Bell: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Chris Bell: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: 2+ Touchdowns | 100% |
| Ollie Gordon II: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Rashee Rice: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Completions O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Kenneth Walker: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 100% |
| Ollie Gordon II: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 100% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 100% |
| Emmett Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Greg Dulcich: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Malik Washington: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chris Bell: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Chris Bell: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Chris Bell: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chris Bell: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| De'Von Achane: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 50% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Brashard Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Brashard Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Chris Bell: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Chris Bell: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Cyrus Allen: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Cyrus Allen: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Emmett Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Emmett Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Greg Dulcich: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Greg Dulcich: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Jake Briningstool: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Jake Briningstool: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Jalen Royals: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Jalen Royals: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Jared Wiley: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Jared Wiley: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Justin Joly: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Justin Joly: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Malik Washington: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Malik Washington: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Malik Willis: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Nikko Remigio: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Nikko Remigio: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Noah Gray: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Noah Gray: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Ollie Gordon II: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Rashee Rice: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Rashee Rice: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Ryan Miller: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Ryan Miller: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Seydou Traore: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Seydou Traore: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Will Kacmarek: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Will Kacmarek: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Brashard Smith: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Chris Bell: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Cyrus Allen: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Emmett Johnson: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Greg Dulcich: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Jake Briningstool: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Jalen Royals: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Jared Wiley: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Justin Joly: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Malik Washington: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Nikko Remigio: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Noah Gray: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Rashee Rice: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Ryan Miller: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Seydou Traore: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Will Kacmarek: Team First TD (Miami Dolphins) | 0% |
| Xavier Worthy: Team First TD (Kansas City Chiefs) | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Emmett Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Emmett Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| De'Von Achane: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 0% |
| Travis Kelce: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Jalen Tolbert: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Malik Willis: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Tyquan Thornton: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to chiefs vs. dolphins - player props. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Chiefs and Dolphins, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Chiefs vs. Dolphins - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Trade Chiefs vs. Dolphins - Player Props on Oscar Predictions 2026
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →