Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 100% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 100% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 100% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 100% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 100% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Chase Brown: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Chase Brown: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Chase Brown: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Darnell Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| DK Metcalf: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Germie Bernard: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Mike Gesicki: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Pat Freiermuth: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 100% |
| Darnell Washington: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| DK Metcalf: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Mike Gesicki: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Pat Freiermuth: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Ben Skowronek: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| DK Metcalf: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Mike Gesicki: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Roman Wilson: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Anytime Touchdown | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 100% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 100% |
| Roman Wilson: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Completions O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Roman Wilson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Roman Wilson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 100% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 100% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 100% |
| Chase Brown: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| DK Metcalf: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| DK Metcalf: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| Pat Freiermuth: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Pat Freiermuth: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Tee Higgins: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mike Gesicki: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Mike Gesicki: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Mike Gesicki: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Darnell Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Darnell Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Roman Wilson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Roman Wilson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Roman Wilson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Roman Wilson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Darnell Washington: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Darnell Washington: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Roman Wilson: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Roman Wilson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Drew Sample: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Michael Pittman Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Michael Pittman Jr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 100% |
| Jaylen Warren: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 100% |
| Andrei Iosivas: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Andrei Iosivas: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Andrei Iosivas: Anytime Touchdown | 10% |
| Andrei Iosivas: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 10% |
| Andrei Iosivas: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Chase Brown: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 0% |
| Chase Brown: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 0% |
| Rico Dowdle: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| Samaje Perine: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Chase Brown: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Chase Brown: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Chase Brown: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| DK Metcalf: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| DK Metcalf: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| DK Metcalf: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 0% |
| DK Metcalf: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 0% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 0% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 0% |
| Chase Brown: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Chase Brown: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Chase Brown: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| DK Metcalf: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| DK Metcalf: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Germie Bernard: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Aaron Rodgers: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Ben Skowronek: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Chase Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Chase Brown: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Colbie Young: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Colbie Young: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Darnell Washington: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Darnell Washington: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| DK Metcalf: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Dohnte Meyers: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Dohnte Meyers: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Drew Sample: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Drew Sample: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Eli Heidenreich: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Eli Heidenreich: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Erick All Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Erick All Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Germie Bernard: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Germie Bernard: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Jack Endries: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Jack Endries: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Jaylen Warren: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Jaylen Warren: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Kaden Wetjen: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Kaden Wetjen: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Ke'Shawn Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Ke'Shawn Williams: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Mike Gesicki: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Pat Freiermuth: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Pat Freiermuth: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Rico Dowdle: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Rico Dowdle: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Robert Tonyan: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Robert Tonyan: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Roman Wilson: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Samaje Perine: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Samaje Perine: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Tahj Brooks: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Tahj Brooks: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Tee Higgins: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Travis Homer: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Travis Homer: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| DK Metcalf: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 0% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| Ben Skowronek: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| Chase Brown: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 0% |
| Colbie Young: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 0% |
| Darnell Washington: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| DK Metcalf: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| Dohnte Meyers: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 0% |
| Drew Sample: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 0% |
| Eli Heidenreich: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| Erick All Jr.: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 0% |
| Germie Bernard: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| Jack Endries: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 0% |
| Jaylen Warren: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| Kaden Wetjen: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| Ke'Shawn Williams: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 0% |
| Mike Gesicki: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 0% |
| Pat Freiermuth: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| Rico Dowdle: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| Robert Tonyan: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| Samaje Perine: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 0% |
| Tahj Brooks: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 0% |
| Tee Higgins: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 0% |
| Travis Homer: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 0% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Joe Burrow: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Joe Burrow: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Attempts O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Joe Burrow: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 0% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 0% |
| Aaron Rodgers: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 0% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 0% |
| Joe Burrow: Passing Yards O/U 349.5 | 0% |
| Chase Brown: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 0% |
| DK Metcalf: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 0% |
| DK Metcalf: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 0% |
| Ja'Marr Chase: Receiving Yards O/U 119.5 | 0% |
| Pat Freiermuth: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Pat Freiermuth: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| Pat Freiermuth: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Pat Freiermuth: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Mike Gesicki: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Samaje Perine: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Colbie Young: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Colbie Young: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Colbie Young: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Germie Bernard: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Germie Bernard: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Erick All Jr.: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Erick All Jr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Erick All Jr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Eli Heidenreich: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Eli Heidenreich: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Eli Heidenreich: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Lew Nichols: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Tanner Hudson: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Lew Nichols: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| Tanner Hudson: Team First TD (Cincinnati Bengals) | 0% |
| Mike Gesicki: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Mike Gesicki: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| Drew Sample: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Drew Sample: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Lew Nichols III: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Lew Nichols III: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
| Jaylen Warren: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| Michael Pittman Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Michael Pittman Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| Michael Pittman Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 0% |
| Michael Pittman Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 0% |
| Michael Pittman Jr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Michael Pittman Jr.: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Michael Pittman Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 0% |
| Michael Pittman Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Michael Pittman Jr.: Team First TD (Pittsburgh Steelers) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to bengals vs. steelers - player props. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Bengals and Steelers, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Bengals vs. Steelers - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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