Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Keleki Latu: Anytime Touchdown | 98% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 92% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 92% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 92% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 91% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 88% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 82% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 82% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 80% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 79% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 78% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 75% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 74% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 73% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 69% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 67% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 64% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 64% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 63% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 62% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 61% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 60% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 56% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Dawson Knox: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Dawson Knox: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Keleki Latu: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 56% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 54% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 52% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 51% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Khalil Shakir: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 51% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| DJ Moore: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Longest Reception O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Longest Reception O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Justin Jefferson: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Completions O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Completions O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Tai Felton: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Ben Yurosek: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Gavin Bartholomew: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Myles Price: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Tai Felton: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| DeeJay Dallas: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Tai Felton: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tai Felton: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tai Felton: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 50% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Ben Yurosek: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Carson Wentz: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Odell Beckham Jr.: Team First TD (Minnesota Vikings) | 50% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 47% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 47% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 46% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 46% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 45% |
| DJ Moore: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 45% |
| James Cook III: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 45% |
| Josh Allen: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 45% |
| Keon Coleman: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 45% |
| Khalil Shakir: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 45% |
| Dawson Knox: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 45% |
| Jackson Hawes: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 45% |
| Ray Davis: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 45% |
| Ty Johnson: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 45% |
| Greg Dortch: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 45% |
| Trent Sherfield: Team First TD (Buffalo Bills) | 45% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 42% |
| DJ Moore: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 41% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 39% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 37% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 36% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 33% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 32% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 31% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 28% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 26% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 26% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 26% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 26% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 25% |
| Josh Allen: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| Tai Felton: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 24% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 24% |
| Dawson Knox: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 23% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 23% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 22% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 22% |
| James Cook III: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 21% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 19% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 19% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 19% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 19% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Justin Jefferson: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 18% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 18% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 17% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 17% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 17% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 16% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 16% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 16% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 16% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Anytime Touchdown | 16% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 15% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 14% |
| Khalil Shakir: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 14% |
| Keon Coleman: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 13% |
| James Cook III: Rushing Yards O/U 119.5 | 13% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 13% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 13% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Anytime Touchdown | 13% |
| Gavin Bartholomew: Anytime Touchdown | 13% |
| Carson Wentz: Anytime Touchdown | 13% |
| Odell Beckham Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 13% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 12% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 12% |
| Jordan Addison: Anytime Touchdown | 12% |
| Jordan Mason: Anytime Touchdown | 12% |
| Khalil Shakir: Anytime Touchdown | 12% |
| Tai Felton: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 12% |
| Josh Allen: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 11% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 11% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 11% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 11% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Jordan Addison: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 10% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 10% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 10% |
| Dalton Kincaid: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 10% |
| DJ Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 10% |
| Jordan Addison: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 10% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 10% |
| T.J. Hockenson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 10% |
| Justin Jefferson: Receptions O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| DJ Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 10% |
| James Cook III: 2+ Touchdowns | 10% |
| Justin Jefferson: 2+ Touchdowns | 10% |
| Dawson Knox: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Jackson Hawes: Anytime Touchdown | 10% |
| Jordan Mason: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 9% |
| Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 9% |
| Keon Coleman: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 9% |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| Dalton Kincaid: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| DJ Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| Jordan Addison: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| Keon Coleman: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| Khalil Shakir: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| T.J. Hockenson: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| Dawson Knox: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| Carson Wentz: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| Ty Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| Myles Price: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| Jordan Mason: 2+ Touchdowns | 7% |
| Keon Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Ray Davis: Anytime Touchdown | 6% |
| Ben Yurosek: Anytime Touchdown | 4% |
| Myles Price: Anytime Touchdown | 4% |
| Ty Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 4% |
| Josh Allen: 2+ Touchdowns | 3% |
| Dawson Knox: Anytime Touchdown | 3% |
| DeeJay Dallas: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Greg Dortch: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Trent Sherfield: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 98% probability to bills vs. vikings - player props. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Bills and Vikings, scheduled for November 9 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Bills vs. Vikings - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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