Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Completions O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 99.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 100% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 99% |
| Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown | 99% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 97% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 97% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 95% |
| Bijan Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 119.5 | 95% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 93% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 92% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 91% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 91% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 88% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 86% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 86% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 86% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 85% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 84% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 83% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 80% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 79% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 77% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 77% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 75% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 74% |
| Bijan Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 74% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 74% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 71% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 69% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 68% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 67% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 67% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 65% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 65% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 64% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 63% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 63% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 61% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 60% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 59% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 58% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 57% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 57% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 56% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 55% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 54% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 54% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 53% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 53% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 52% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 51% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 51% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 51% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Blair: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Drake London: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Mark Redman: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Muse: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Drake London: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Austin Hooper: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Bo Melton: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Charlie Woerner: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Blair: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Christian Watson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Drake London: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Jayden Reed: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Josh Whyle: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Mark Redman: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Matthew Golden: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Nick Muse: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Tucker Kraft: Team First TD (Green Bay Packers) | 50% |
| Zachariah Branch: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Team First TD (Atlanta Falcons) | 50% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Brian Robinson: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 46% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Matthew Golden: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 45% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 44% |
| Drake London: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 43% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 37% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 37% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 34% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 30% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 29% |
| Drake London: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 29% |
| Matthew Golden: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Drake London: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| Jordan Love: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Bo Melton: 2+ Touchdowns | 23% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 22% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 22% |
| Christian Watson: 2+ Touchdowns | 22% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Matthew Golden: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Jahan Dotson: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Tucker Kraft: Anytime Touchdown | 18% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Christian Watson: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 16% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 14% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Anytime Touchdown | 12% |
| Skyy Moore: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 11% |
| MarShawn Lloyd: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 10% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Chris Brooks: Anytime Touchdown | 9% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 9% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Tucker Kraft: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 8% |
| Skyy Moore: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Jonnu Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 6% |
| Skyy Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 6% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 6% |
| Chris Brooks: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 6% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 6% |
| Jonnu Smith: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 6% |
| Jordan Love: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr.: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Charlie Woerner: 2+ Touchdowns | 5% |
| Christian Watson: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 5% |
| Bo Melton: Anytime Touchdown | 4% |
| Mark Redman: Anytime Touchdown | 4% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 4% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 4% |
| Kaleb Johnson: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 4% |
| Bijan Robinson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 4% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Josh Whyle: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Brian Robinson: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Chris Brooks: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Jordan Love: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Skyy Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Michael Penix Jr.: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to falcons vs. packers - player props. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Falcons and Packers, scheduled for September 24 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Falcons vs. Packers - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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