Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 195.5 | 96% |
| O/U 193.5 | 96% |
| O/U 197.5 | 93% |
| O/U 199.5 | 92% |
| O/U 201.5 | 89% |
| O/U 203.5 | 87% |
| O/U 205.5 | 84% |
| O/U 207.5 | 82% |
| 1H O/U 106.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 102.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 104.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 100.5 | 80% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 98.5 | 79% |
| O/U 209.5 | 78% |
| Jase Richardson: Points O/U 4.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 108.5 | 78% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 76% |
| O/U 211.5 | 74% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| O/U 213.5 | 71% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 9.5 | 71% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 9.5 | 71% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 9.5 | 71% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| Jamal Cain: Points O/U 4.5 | 70% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 9.5 | 70% |
| Jase Richardson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| Magic vs. Kings | 69% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5 | 69% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 68% |
| O/U 215.5 | 67% |
| Anthony Black: Points O/U 9.5 | 67% |
| Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 65% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 65% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 64% |
| O/U 217.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| 1H Moneyline | 63% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 14.5 | 62% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 14.5 | 62% |
| 1H O/U 110.5 | 62% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 60% |
| O/U 219.5 | 59% |
| Magic O/U 112.5 | 59% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 58% |
| Kings O/U 106.5 | 58% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 58% |
| Kings O/U 102.5 | 57% |
| Kings O/U 100.5 | 57% |
| O/U 221.5 | 56% |
| Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Jamal Cain: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 112.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 49.5 | 56% |
| Kings O/U 98.5 | 56% |
| Anthony Black: Assists O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 45.5 | 55% |
| Kings O/U 96.5 | 55% |
| Spread -5.5 | 54% |
| Anthony Black: Points O/U 14.5 | 54% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 54% |
| Kings O/U 104.5 | 54% |
| Magic O/U 110.5 | 54% |
| Kings 1H O/U 51.5 | 54% |
| Magic 1H O/U 54.5 | 54% |
| Magic O/U 108.5 | 54% |
| Magic O/U 106.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 47.5 | 54% |
| Magic O/U 104.5 | 54% |
| Magic O/U 102.5 | 54% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 222.5 | 53% |
| Kings 1H O/U 53.5 | 53% |
| Magic 1H O/U 56.5 | 53% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Magic O/U 114.5 | 51% |
| Magic 1H O/U 58.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 51% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Kings O/U 108.5 | 50% |
| Kings 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| O/U 223.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Anthony Black: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Tristan da Silva: Steals O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Tristan da Silva: Steals O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 58.5 | 47% |
| Kings 1H O/U 57.5 | 47% |
| Magic 1H O/U 60.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 47% |
| Kings 1H O/U 59.5 | 47% |
| Magic 1H O/U 62.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 67.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 47% |
| Jase Richardson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Kings O/U 112.5 | 46% |
| Magic O/U 118.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 46% |
| Magic O/U 120.5 | 46% |
| Magic O/U 124.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 225.5 | 45% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| Magic O/U 122.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 69.5 | 45% |
| Kings O/U 120.5 | 45% |
| Magic O/U 126.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 45% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| Anthony Black: Assists O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Kings O/U 110.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 44% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Magic O/U 116.5 | 43% |
| Kings O/U 114.5 | 43% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Spread -8.5 | 42% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Jamal Cain: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 116.5 | 42% |
| O/U 227.5 | 41% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Anthony Black: Steals O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 41% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Jase Richardson: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Spread -9.5 | 39% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 39% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 23.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 38% |
| Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5 | 37% |
| Jase Richardson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| Kings O/U 118.5 | 37% |
| O/U 229.5 | 36% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Kings O/U 116.5 | 36% |
| Spread -10.5 | 35% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5 | 35% |
| Anthony Black: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -11.5 | 33% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Anthony Black: Points O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| O/U 231.5 | 31% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 8.5 | 31% |
| Jamal Cain: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 31% |
| Spread -12.5 | 30% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 23.5 | 30% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Jase Richardson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Anthony Black: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| Anthony Black: Points O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 29% |
| O/U 233.5 | 28% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Anthony Black: Assists O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 27% |
| Anthony Black: Steals O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| O/U 235.5 | 24% |
| Jase Richardson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 12.5 | 23% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 128.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 130.5 | 23% |
| Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| O/U 237.5 | 21% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Jase Richardson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 120.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 124.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Jamal Cain: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Tristan da Silva: Steals O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Anthony Black: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| O/U 239.5 | 17% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 24.5 | 17% |
| Spread -18.5 | 16% |
| Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 15% |
| O/U 241.5 | 14% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Tristan da Silva: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Anthony Black: Steals O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 34.5 | 13% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Franz Wagner: Steals O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| O/U 243.5 | 12% |
| Anthony Black: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Jase Richardson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Desmond Bane: Steals O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| O/U 245.5 | 11% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Jase Richardson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Anthony Black: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Zach LaVine: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Spread -22.5 | 9% |
| Spread -11.5 | 9% |
| O/U 247.5 | 9% |
| Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Jase Richardson: Points O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Zach LaVine: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Desmond Bane: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Zach LaVine: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Anthony Black: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Desmond Bane: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 15.5 | 8% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -24.5 | 7% |
| Spread -26.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| Spread -15.5 | 7% |
| O/U 249.5 | 7% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Points O/U 39.5 | 7% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| De'Andre Hunter: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 7% |
| Anthony Black: Assists O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 13.5 | 7% |
| Franz Wagner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| De'Andre Hunter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Wendell Carter Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 34.5 | 6% |
| Jamal Cain: Points O/U 14.5 | 6% |
| Jase Richardson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Spread -30.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Franz Wagner: Points O/U 39.5 | 5% |
| Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Jase Richardson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Darius Acuff Jr.: Assists O/U 11.5 | 5% |
| Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Anthony Black: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Spread -28.5 | 3% |
| Spread -34.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Spread -32.5 | 2% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Magic vs. Kings. In the upcoming NBA game between Magic and Kings, originally scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If the Magic win, the ma…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $66K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Magic vs. Kings. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
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