Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 204.5 | 95% |
| O/U 208.5 | 93% |
| O/U 206.5 | 93% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 92% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 92% |
| O/U 210.5 | 91% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 91% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 9.5 | 91% |
| O/U 212.5 | 89% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 89% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 88% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 1.5 | 87% |
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 86% |
| Pelicans O/U 99.5 | 86% |
| O/U 214.5 | 85% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 84% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 1.5 | 83% |
| O/U 216.5 | 82% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 3.5 | 82% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 82% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 9.5 | 81% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 81% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 1.5 | 81% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 81% |
| O/U 218.5 | 79% |
| Derik Queen: Points O/U 4.5 | 79% |
| Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 9.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 79% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 9.5 | 78% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 78% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 78% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 77% |
| Pelicans O/U 101.5 | 77% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| O/U 220.5 | 75% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 9.5 | 75% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 75% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 14.5 | 74% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 3.5 | 74% |
| Dejounte Murray: Steals O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 74% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 74% |
| Pelicans O/U 103.5 | 74% |
| Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 9.5 | 73% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 73% |
| Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 73% |
| Warriors O/U 112.5 | 73% |
| O/U 222.5 | 71% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 70% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 70% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 69% |
| Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 69% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 69% |
| Karlo Matković: Points O/U 4.5 | 68% |
| Zion Williamson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 53.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 68% |
| Pelicans O/U 105.5 | 68% |
| O/U 224.5 | 67% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 67% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 58.5 | 67% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| Trey Murphy III: Steals O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 66% |
| Spread -5.5 | 65% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 64% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 64% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 64% |
| Derik Queen: Assists O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| Warriors O/U 116.5 | 63% |
| O/U 226.5 | 62% |
| Spread -6.5 | 62% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Steals O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 62% |
| Pelicans O/U 107.5 | 62% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 61% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 60% |
| O/U 228.5 | 59% |
| Pelicans O/U 109.5 | 59% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 58% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 57% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 60.5 | 57% |
| Spread -7.5 | 56% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 55.5 | 56% |
| O/U 230.5 | 55% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| Karlo Matković: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 55% |
| Spread -8.5 | 54% |
| Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 14.5 | 54% |
| Saddiq Bey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 54% |
| O/U 231.5 | 53% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 53% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 52% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| O/U 232.5 | 50% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Trey Murphy III: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Pelicans O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Steals O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Karlo Matković: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Karlo Matković: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| Karlo Matković: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 48% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 62.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 48% |
| Karlo Matković: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 57.5 | 47% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 46% |
| Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| O/U 234.5 | 45% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Derik Queen: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| Warriors O/U 122.5 | 45% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Saddiq Bey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 43% |
| Pelicans O/U 113.5 | 43% |
| Spread -11.5 | 42% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 41% |
| O/U 236.5 | 40% |
| Jeremiah Fears: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 40% |
| Spread -12.5 | 39% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Dejounte Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| Trey Murphy III: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 38% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 38% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Zion Williamson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Pelicans O/U 115.5 | 37% |
| O/U 238.5 | 36% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 64.5 | 36% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 59.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 36% |
| Spread -13.5 | 35% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 6.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 35% |
| Spread -14.5 | 34% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| 2Q O/U 62.5 | 34% |
| O/U 240.5 | 33% |
| Georges Niang: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Karlo Matković: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 33% |
| Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 31% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| Warriors O/U 126.5 | 31% |
| Spread -15.5 | 30% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 15.5 | 30% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 20.5 | 30% |
| Karlo Matković: Points O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Saddiq Bey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 30% |
| Pelicans O/U 117.5 | 30% |
| O/U 242.5 | 29% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 29% |
| Spread -16.5 | 28% |
| Georges Niang: Points O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 61.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 28% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| Karlo Matković: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 66.5 | 27% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 27% |
| O/U 244.5 | 26% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 6.5 | 26% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 26% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 8.5 | 26% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| Trey Murphy III: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 26% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Dejounte Murray: Steals O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| Pelicans O/U 119.5 | 25% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 24.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 66.5 | 24% |
| Pelicans vs. Warriors | 23% |
| Spread -18.5 | 23% |
| Dejounte Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Jeremiah Fears: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 23% |
| O/U 246.5 | 22% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Karlo Matković: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Steals O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -1.5 | 21% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 21% |
| Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 20% |
| Pelicans O/U 121.5 | 20% |
| O/U 248.5 | 19% |
| Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| Derik Queen: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Trey Murphy III: Steals O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 68.5 | 17% |
| O/U 250.5 | 16% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 16% |
| Karlo Matković: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| Warriors O/U 132.5 | 16% |
| Spread -22.5 | 15% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| O/U 252.5 | 14% |
| Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Trey Murphy III: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Dejounte Murray: Steals O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 14% |
| Pelicans O/U 123.5 | 14% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 34.5 | 13% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -24.5 | 12% |
| Spread -5.5 | 12% |
| O/U 254.5 | 12% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Trey Murphy III: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Dejounte Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Jeremiah Fears: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 70.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -26.5 | 10% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| O/U 256.5 | 10% |
| Derik Queen: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Trey Murphy III: Steals O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Zion Williamson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 10% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 9% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 9% |
| Spread -28.5 | 8% |
| Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| O/U 258.5 | 8% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Karlo Matković: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Steals O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| 1Q O/U 72.5 | 8% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 8% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 44.5 | 7% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| Karlo Matković: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| Spread -30.5 | 6% |
| Spread -11.5 | 6% |
| O/U 260.5 | 6% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Karlo Matković: Points O/U 14.5 | 6% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 6% |
| Dejounte Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Saddiq Bey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 4% |
| Derik Queen: Assists O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Derik Queen: Points O/U 19.5 | 4% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -32.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -38.5 | 3% |
| Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 7.5 | 3% |
| Spread -34.5 | 2% |
| Spread -36.5 | 2% |
Market context
Market consensus: 95% chance of pelicans vs. warriors. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NBA game between Pelicans and Warriors, originally scheduled for Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $290K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Pelicans vs. Warriors. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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Trade Pelicans vs. Warriors on Oscar Predictions 2026
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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