Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 91.5 | 95% |
| 1H O/U 93.5 | 94% |
| O/U 201.5 | 93% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 9.5 | 93% |
| 1Q O/U 44.5 | 93% |
| O/U 203.5 | 90% |
| 1H O/U 95.5 | 90% |
| O/U 205.5 | 89% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 86% |
| O/U 207.5 | 85% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 84% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 97.5 | 84% |
| O/U 209.5 | 83% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 83% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 83% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 9.5 | 81% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 14.5 | 81% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 81% |
| O/U 211.5 | 80% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 99.5 | 79% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 14.5 | 78% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| O/U 213.5 | 77% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| Pacers O/U 102.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 42.5 | 76% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 9.5 | 74% |
| 1H O/U 101.5 | 74% |
| O/U 215.5 | 73% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| 1Q O/U 46.5 | 73% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 50.5 | 72% |
| Mavericks O/U 100.5 | 72% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| Mavericks O/U 110.5 | 71% |
| Mavericks O/U 106.5 | 71% |
| Mavericks O/U 102.5 | 71% |
| Pacers O/U 98.5 | 71% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 54.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 70% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 70% |
| Mavericks O/U 104.5 | 70% |
| O/U 217.5 | 69% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 69% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 68% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 68% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 68% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 66% |
| O/U 219.5 | 65% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 65% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 64% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 2.5 | 64% |
| Pacers O/U 104.5 | 64% |
| Pacers O/U 100.5 | 64% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 9.5 | 63% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 63% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 52.5 | 63% |
| Mavericks O/U 108.5 | 63% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 62% |
| Pacers O/U 106.5 | 62% |
| O/U 221.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 61% |
| Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 9.5 | 59% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 9.5 | 59% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 59% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| Pacers O/U 108.5 | 59% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 58% |
| Mavericks O/U 112.5 | 58% |
| O/U 222.5 | 57% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 0.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 48.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 223.5 | 56% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 56% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5 | 55% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5 | 55% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 49.5 | 55% |
| O/U 224.5 | 55% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 54% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 51.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 53.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 53% |
| Pacers O/U 110.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 53.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| O/U 226.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 48% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 48% |
| O/U 227.5 | 47% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 47% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 55.5 | 46% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 57.5 | 46% |
| Spread -5.5 | 45% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Pacers O/U 112.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 45% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 44% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Pacers O/U 114.5 | 43% |
| Pacers O/U 118.5 | 43% |
| O/U 229.5 | 42% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 42% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 56.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 42% |
| Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 41% |
| Pacers vs. Mavericks | 40% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Mavericks O/U 116.5 | 40% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| O/U 231.5 | 38% |
| Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Mavericks O/U 120.5 | 38% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| Mavericks O/U 118.5 | 36% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 35% |
| O/U 233.5 | 34% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Pacers O/U 116.5 | 34% |
| Pacers O/U 122.5 | 34% |
| Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Pacers O/U 120.5 | 33% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 21.5 | 32% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 58.5 | 32% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5 | 31% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 31% |
| O/U 235.5 | 30% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Mavericks O/U 124.5 | 30% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 25.5 | 29% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 29% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5 | 29% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 54.5 | 29% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 20.5 | 29% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -11.5 | 28% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 28% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 27% |
| O/U 237.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 66.5 | 26% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| O/U 239.5 | 23% |
| Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 29.5 | 23% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| O/U 241.5 | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 20% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 19% |
| Mavericks O/U 122.5 | 19% |
| Spread -15.5 | 18% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 18% |
| O/U 243.5 | 17% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 15% |
| O/U 245.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| O/U 247.5 | 12% |
| Spread -12.5 | 12% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Spread -19.5 | 11% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| O/U 249.5 | 10% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| O/U 251.5 | 9% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 8% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -23.5 | 7% |
| Spread -25.5 | 7% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 7% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 7% |
| O/U 253.5 | 6% |
| Spread -18.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -27.5 | 6% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 34.5 | 6% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| O/U 255.5 | 5% |
| O/U 257.5 | 5% |
| Spread -22.5 | 5% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 39.5 | 5% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 5% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 19.5 | 5% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -29.5 | 4% |
| Spread -31.5 | 4% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 24.5 | 4% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 19.5 | 4% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -24.5 | 3% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 7.5 | 3% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
Market context
Market consensus: 95% chance of pacers vs. mavericks. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NBA game between Pacers and Mavericks, originally scheduled for Monday, November 9, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $378K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Pacers vs. Mavericks. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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