Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 211.5 | 83% |
| O/U 214.5 | 76% |
| O/U 217.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 220.5 | 66% |
| O/U 222.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 223.5 | 60% |
| O/U 225.5 | 56% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 226.5 | 54% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 227.5 | 53% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 51% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| O/U 228.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| O/U 230.5 | 46% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| O/U 233.5 | 39% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Rockets vs. Spurs | 36% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 236.5 | 32% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5 | 27% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| O/U 239.5 | 26% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 | 26% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 26% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Spread -15.5 | 21% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -18.5 | 16% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 39.5 | 9% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 29.5 | 7% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, rockets vs. spurs stands at 83% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 9:30PM ET: If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets". If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $93K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Rockets vs. Spurs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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