Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 84% |
| Pacers O/U 112.5 | 83% |
| Mavericks O/U 105.5 | 82% |
| O/U 224.5 | 80% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 55.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 76% |
| O/U 227.5 | 75% |
| Pacers O/U 116.5 | 73% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 58.5 | 71% |
| O/U 230.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| O/U 231.5 | 67% |
| O/U 232.5 | 66% |
| Mavericks O/U 111.5 | 66% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 5.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 65% |
| O/U 233.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 64% |
| Pacers O/U 118.5 | 64% |
| Spread -3.5 | 63% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 60.5 | 62% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 66.5 | 62% |
| O/U 234.5 | 61% |
| Spread -4.5 | 60% |
| O/U 235.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 57.5 | 58% |
| Spread -5.5 | 57% |
| O/U 236.5 | 57% |
| O/U 237.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| O/U 238.5 | 54% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 53% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 62.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Mavericks O/U 115.5 | 53% |
| Pacers O/U 122.5 | 53% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 52% |
| O/U 239.5 | 52% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 131.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 113.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 117.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 127.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 133.5 | 50% |
| O/U 240.5 | 49% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 49% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Assists O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Obi Toppin: Assists O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 34.5 | 44% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 64.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 44% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| O/U 243.5 | 42% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 4.5 | 42% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 41% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 34.5 | 41% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 41% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 61.5 | 40% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 39% |
| Pacers O/U 126.5 | 39% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| Spread -11.5 | 36% |
| O/U 246.5 | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Mavericks O/U 121.5 | 32% |
| Pacers O/U 128.5 | 32% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5 | 31% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 39.5 | 31% |
| Mavericks vs. Pacers | 30% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Obi Toppin: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 9.5 | 29% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| O/U 249.5 | 28% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5 | 27% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 27% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 130.5 | 26% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 24% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Mavericks O/U 125.5 | 23% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 24.5 | 22% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 22% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 15.5 | 21% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 39.5 | 19% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 19% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 24.5 | 16% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| Spread -20.5 | 15% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 14% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
Market context
Market consensus: 84% chance of mavericks vs. pacers. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the Pacers win, the market will resolve to "Pacers…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $258K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Mavericks vs. Pacers. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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