When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

74% Yes — Houston Astros vs. New York Mets | Oscarpredictions2026

Name: Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
Start: 2026-08-23T13:00:48.000Z
End: 2026-09-05T20:10:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	74%	26%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	74%	26%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5	74%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5	60%
O/U 7.5	55%
NRFI	49%
Extra Innings	48%
O/U 8.5	46%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5	46%
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets	43%
Spread -1.5	39%
O/U 9.5	35%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	35%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5	35%
Spread -1.5	32%
Spread -2.5	28%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5	25%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	23%
Spread -2.5	22%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 74% probability to houston astros vs. new york mets. In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and New York Mets, scheduled for August 29 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This mar…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 74% for "Houston Astros vs. New York Mets".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 74% Other 26%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $104K.

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Houston Astros vs. New York Mets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?: After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?: Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?: Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?: Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?: UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

Trade Houston Astros vs. New York Mets on Oscar Predictions 2026

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Houston Astros vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Houston Astros vs. New York Mets on Oscar Predictions 2026

Related live markets

LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Playoffs

LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs

Fed Decision in September?

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B

Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC

Related Topics