Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 94% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) | 85% |
| Game 1 Winner | 82% |
| Game 2 Winner | 82% |
| Game 3 Winner | 82% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 76% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Game 4 Winner | 65% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 63% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 56% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 45% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 45% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 43% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 42% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 40% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 39% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 13% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 8% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 94% YES probability for LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between T1 and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for July 1 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 …
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
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