Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
76% | 24% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
76% | 24% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 76% |
| Game 1 Winner | 67% |
| Game 2 Winner | 66% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 66% |
| Game 3 Winner | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Game 4 Winner | 63% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? | 61% |
| Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) | 56% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 54% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 54% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 47% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 45% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 45% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 42% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 42% |
| Game Handicap: KT (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) | 31% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 30% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 29% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 29% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 29% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 76% probability to lol: kt rolster vs hanjin brion (bo5) - lck play-in. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket final match between KT Rolster and HANJIN BRION in the LCK Play-In, initially scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "KT …
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Play-In. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23f472b6%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23f472b6%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Play-In on Oscar Predictions 2026
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →