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Valorant: Global Esports vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

How the prediction markets are pricing "Valorant: Global Esports vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 100% Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 100% Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 100% Volume: $218K Liquidity: $1.8M Closes: 5 Jul 2026
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Valorant: Global Esports vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5100%
Map Handicap: AG.AL (-1.5) vs Global Esports (+1.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5)100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)51%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.551%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.551%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.551%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.510%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.510%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-5.5) vs Global Esports (+5.5)1%
Map 1 Winner0%
Map 2 Winner0%
Match Winner0%
O/U 2.5 Games0%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs AG.AL International (+1.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-4.5) vs Global Esports (+4.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-3.5) vs Global Esports (+3.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-4.5) vs Global Esports (+4.5)0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-3.5) vs Global Esports (+3.5)0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.50%

Market context

The Valorant: Global Esports vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Valorant Elimination match between Global Esports and AG.AL International in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 5 at 7:00AM ET. This market will res…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Valorant: Global Esports vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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