Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Enterprise Esports (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 80% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 57% |
| Map 2 Winner | 56% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 56% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Enterprise Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Enterprise Esports (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 45% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 45% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 45% |
| Map Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Enterprise Esports (+1.5) | 44% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Enterprise Esports (+2.5) | 36% |
| Match Winner | 28% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Enterprise Esports (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-3.5) vs Enterprise Esports (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-4.5) vs Enterprise Esports (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-5.5) vs Enterprise Esports (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-6.5) vs Enterprise Esports (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map Handicap: EP (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Enterprise Esports (-3.5) vs Karmine Corp (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 90% probability to valorant: enterprise esports vs karmine corp (bo3) - vct emea playoffs. This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Enterprise Esports and Karmine Corp in the VCT EMEA Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This m…
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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