UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Theodor Berggren and Daniil Donchenko face off tonight in a welterweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres, with the market currently pricing Berggren’s win at 0% despite his recent first-round TKO victory over Rodrigo Sezinando. Historical precedents in combat sports prediction markets often mirror the jury-and-televote split seen in Eurovision, where public sentiment and expert analysis diverge sharply; here, the 0% figure suggests a near-total consensus among traders that Donchenko, who holds a 14–2 record against Berggren’s 8–3, will dominate. Similar to how the Oscars use preferential ballots for Best Picture to capture nuanced voter intent, this market’s extreme pricing reflects a jury-like confidence in Donchenko’s superior win rate and physical metrics, including identical height but a weight advantage at 170 lbs[3].

Traders should monitor official UFC announcements for any late changes to fight status, as a No Contest or technical draw would reset the market to 50–50, a clause that has precedent in recent UFC Fight Night 280 outcomes[6]. Key catalysts include Donchenko’s pre-fight interview where he emphasised his return to the Octagon, suggesting high readiness, and Berggren’s reliance on explosive finishes, which may falter against Donchenko’s defensive discipline[5]. The resolution hinges on the UFC’s official declaration, with the settlement window closing on 28 June 2026, and any delay beyond 11 July would trigger the 50–50 outcome. Recent stats zone previews confirm Donchenko as the predicted TKO winner, reinforcing the market’s current trajectory[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.