Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 89% |
| O/U 30.5 | 87% |
| O/U 32.5 | 82% |
| O/U 34.5 | 79% |
| O/U 36.5 | 76% |
| 2H O/U 15.5 | 76% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 71% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| Texans O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| Texans 2H O/U 8.5 | 69% |
| Bills 2H O/U 8.5 | 69% |
| O/U 38.5 | 68% |
| Texans O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| Texans 1H O/U 8.5 | 64% |
| Bills 1H O/U 8.5 | 64% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 64% |
| O/U 40.5 | 63% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 63% |
| Texans 2H O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| O/U 42.5 | 57% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 43.5 | 55% |
| Bills O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| O/U 44.5 | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| Bills vs. Texans | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 51% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 51% |
| 1H Moneyline | 51% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Texans 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Texans O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Texans by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texans Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Texans Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills vs. Texans: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| O/U 45.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| O/U 46.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 45% |
| Texans 1H O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Texans 1H O/U 12.5 | 42% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 42% |
| Bills O/U 25.5 | 42% |
| Texans O/U 25.5 | 42% |
| O/U 47.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 48.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| O/U 50.5 | 33% |
| Texans O/U 28.5 | 33% |
| Bills O/U 28.5 | 32% |
| O/U 52.5 | 28% |
| O/U 54.5 | 22% |
| O/U 56.5 | 20% |
| O/U 58.5 | 17% |
| O/U 60.5 | 13% |
| O/U 64.5 | 11% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
Market context
Market consensus: 93% chance of bills vs. texans. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET: If Bills wins, the market will resolve to "Bills". If Texans wins, the market will resolve to "Texans". If the ga…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $90K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Bills vs. Texans. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Which entertainment markets are available?
- Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
- When do award markets resolve?
- After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- Who can trade Eurovision markets?
- Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
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