Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 202.5 | 96% |
| O/U 204.5 | 95% |
| O/U 206.5 | 94% |
| O/U 208.5 | 94% |
| O/U 210.5 | 93% |
| O/U 212.5 | 91% |
| O/U 214.5 | 88% |
| O/U 216.5 | 85% |
| 76ers O/U 112.5 | 85% |
| O/U 218.5 | 82% |
| Bucks O/U 100.5 | 81% |
| Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| 76ers O/U 114.5 | 80% |
| O/U 220.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 77% |
| Spread -4.5 | 76% |
| Bucks O/U 102.5 | 76% |
| O/U 222.5 | 75% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 75% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 74% |
| 76ers O/U 116.5 | 74% |
| O/U 224.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 71% |
| Spread -6.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 70% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 70% |
| Bucks O/U 104.5 | 70% |
| O/U 226.5 | 69% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 19.5 | 69% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 69% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 68% |
| 76ers O/U 118.5 | 68% |
| Spread -7.5 | 66% |
| O/U 228.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 64% |
| Bucks O/U 106.5 | 64% |
| Spread -8.5 | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 62% |
| 76ers O/U 120.5 | 62% |
| Spread -9.5 | 60% |
| O/U 230.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 59% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 58% |
| Bucks O/U 108.5 | 58% |
| Spread -10.5 | 57% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| O/U 232.5 | 56% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 56% |
| 76ers O/U 122.5 | 56% |
| Spread -11.5 | 55% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Bucks O/U 98.5 | 53% |
| O/U 234.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 52% |
| Bucks O/U 110.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Brown: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Joel Embiid: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 1H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Bucks 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 76ers 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 76ers O/U 124.5 | 49% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| O/U 236.5 | 47% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 47% |
| 76ers O/U 136.5 | 47% |
| Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 14.5 | 45% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 45% |
| Bucks O/U 112.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 34.5 | 44% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 39.5 | 44% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Spread -14.5 | 43% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 24.5 | 43% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 43% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| O/U 238.5 | 42% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| Spread -15.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 39% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 39% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Spread -16.5 | 38% |
| O/U 240.5 | 38% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 24.5 | 36% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 24.5 | 36% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -17.5 | 35% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| Bucks O/U 116.5 | 35% |
| O/U 242.5 | 34% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 29.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 34% |
| Spread -18.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 32% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 31% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 76ers O/U 130.5 | 30% |
| O/U 244.5 | 29% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Bucks O/U 118.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 27% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 27% |
| 76ers 1H O/U 67.5 | 27% |
| O/U 246.5 | 26% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| Bucks O/U 114.5 | 25% |
| O/U 248.5 | 24% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| 76ers O/U 132.5 | 24% |
| Spread -22.5 | 23% |
| 1H Moneyline | 23% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 6.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| Bucks O/U 120.5 | 23% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 22% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 21% |
| O/U 250.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 20% |
| Spread -24.5 | 19% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5 | 19% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 19% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 24.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| Bucks O/U 122.5 | 18% |
| 76ers O/U 134.5 | 18% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Bucks vs. 76ers | 16% |
| Spread -26.5 | 16% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 16% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Joel Embiid: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 14% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Spread -28.5 | 12% |
| Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 12% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Tyrese Maxey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 11% |
| Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| Spread -30.5 | 9% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 9% |
| Spread -5.5 | 8% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 8% |
| Spread -32.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 7% |
| Spread -34.5 | 6% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Jaylen Brown: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Joel Embiid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Kyle Kuzma: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Myles Turner: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| VJ Edgecombe: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -38.5 | 4% |
| Spread -11.5 | 4% |
| Spread -40.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 2% |
Market context
Bucks vs. 76ers. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 16% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-24T23:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $155K.
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Bucks vs. 76ers. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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Trade Bucks vs. 76ers on Oscar Predictions 2026
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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